954mb

The pressure has just fallen to 954mb in Wilma. The hurricane is still
stengthening.
http://www.hows-the-weather.com/blog.htm
for the latest on my thoughts of the tropics.

Now a Cat. 3

With 115mph winds Wilma is now approacing the SW coast of Florida. The eye is about 50 miles wide making Wilma a very large, strong storm.

Current thinking is that Broward and Palm Beach counties are likely to experience catagory 2 winds. It has been over 50 years since Broward has had winds like this.

Here at home all is set and we are as prepared as we can be. I will probably go to sleep for a few hours in a bit but updates will be issued as things happen.

Wilma almost Cat. 3

As of 10PM Wilma is almost a catagory three hurricane again. There is about another 8 hours before hurricane force winds will be felt here in Pompano Beach. Outside now is beautiful, partly cloudy and a nice breeze. No feeder bands as of yet here.

We are not only in a Hurricane Warning but also a Flood Watch and a Tornado Watch. More updates as I go through the night.

Howard

HURRICANE WARNING

A Hurricane Warning was issued at 11pm for all of south Florida. Wilma
looks as if she is making that turn and should directly impact us early
Monday morning. Though the timing is still uncertain until she starts
accelerating.

Tomorrow will be an interesting day to see how people will react. Of
course all the TV stations will have non-stop coverage for a couple of
days, which is usually a good thing.

I think the biggest danger will be tornadoes for our area. As I have
read today back in 1964 Hurricane Isbell spawned several tornadoes and
hurricanes coming from the Gulf of Mexico interacting with southward
cold fronts have a strong tendency to create tornadoes.

More in the morning.
http://www.hows-the-weather.com/blog.htm
for the latest on my thoughts of the tropics.

Hurricane Watch

Has been issued for SE Florida.
http://www.hows-the-weather.com/blog.htm
for the latest on my thoughts of the tropics.

TD25!

Formed at 11am. Will this be Alpha???
http://www.hows-the-weather.com/blog.htm
for the latest on my thoughts of the tropics.

Hurricane Watch for the Keys

It is pretty safe to say we will see additional watches/warnings on the
5pm advisory.

Storm detals soon.
http://www.hows-the-weather.com/blog.htm
for the latest on my thoughts of the tropics.

Wilma to Affect South Florida on Monday

I am back, so here we go...

At 11PM Wilma is still a 140mph hurricane near Cancun. Min pressure is 932mb and moving NNW at a very slow 3mph. Part of the eye is over land so weakening is expected.

Models now seem to have a very good handle on the storm, especially after 24 hours. Now it asppears that Monday will be the day Wilma comes ashore in Florida. It should be just off shore the east coast at 8PM Monday according to the NHC.

This is what to look for tomorrow/Sunday if you are in south Florida. As the storm starts to move north get ready and as soon as there is an easterly component to the motion, NNE or NE, than Wilma should accelerate towards Florida.

With this timeline and should it hold true, watches/warnings should begin to be issued tomorrow since that will put us in the 48 hour window for tropical storm conditionds to begin.

Not to repeat myself again, tomorrow should give us a good glimpse of the future. Please check back then and we will see where she is.

Have a good night.

Moajor change in models

Quick note, major shift in models. Possible change in official forecast at 5PM. Stay tuned.

Wilma still catagory 5

The 11am advisory did not bring any major changes. The only stat that is different is that the hurricane is now wnw at 6mph.

As far as the local area, the Keys will start evacuating visitors and non-residents starting at noon. At this point I would say that watches/warnings will be issued for our area starting tomorrow.

I will post more when the recon gets out there.

Now 882mb

The 8am advisory just came out, the pressure is now 882mb. All other stats are the same. Next advisory at 11am.

Graphic on Wilma

I meant to post this with the last entry. Gusts to 215mph!!

884mb, lowest pressure ever in the Atlantic

By now you have heard that Wilma is a cat 5. Winds as of 5am were 175mph and the lowest, unverified, pressure of 884mb in the Atlantic. This is lower than the 888mb record of Gilbet in 1988.

In 12 hours the pressure has dropped 86mb. This is a very rare event to have a system drop in pressure this fast and I can not believe this happened in mid-October as opposed to September or even August.

With Wilma moving WNW now the chances of it making landfall in Hondorus isnow minimal and Florida seems to be very probable.

945mb, 110mph and it is not moving?

The 11PM advisory is out and we have a catagory 2 hurricane with an estimated pressure of 945mb. Though Wilma is forecast to still threaten Florida there may be some correction to this if the hurricane does not start moving.

Due to lightning in my area now I have to shut down...more later.

954mb

Pressure is down to 954mb, winds at the surface are estimated at 95 to
100mph. 8pm advisory out soon.
--howpomp

Pressure still dropping

The latest pressure from the recon plane is 963mb. This was recorded at 5:39PM EDT. Max winds at this time were 82 knots at 1500 feet.

Pressure down

Report from the plane indicates the pressure is now 970mb.
--howpomp

80MPH and getting stronger

The 2PM advisory increased the winds to 80 MPH. The recon plane is on its way and in the next hour or so we should have some data back. At this time there is no change in the threat to Florida so at this time we should be restocking all of our supplies should the forecast verify.

Below are the latest models available and more will be posted when the plane reports back.

Wilma to affect south Florida

The 5am advisory indicates and confirms that south Florida should see
some impact from Wilma. Granted you can not follow a point or a line
when forcasting a system but south Florida is in the cone of concern.

The 5am forcast did show Wilma hitting the west coast of Florida as a
cat. 3 and exiting the east coast as a cat. 1.

Updates will be posted as information comes in. Stay tuned...
--howpomp

Wilma Poses a Threat

At this time I am forecasting that Wilma will pose a threat and affect
South Florida. The models currently coming out are showing this. The
11pm advisory should reflect this. I will have an update soon after.
--howpomp

TD24 and south Florida

Please check back tomorrow afternoon for a special analysis on TD24 and
Florida. Some early models have indicated that this one needs to be
watched by us closely.
--howpomp

TD24!

Yet another depression is what is almost a record breaking year. TD24
formed west of Jamaica which is where a trough has been located for the
past few days.

Models are very divergent but the official forecast has TD24 going west
for three days then turning north or north-northeast.
--howpomp

Vince a first

Early, early this morning tropical storm Vince made landfall in Spain.
According to the NHC this is the first time a tropical cyclone has made
landfall in that country. Records have been kept since about 1851 so
this was really a rare event.

Of course this system in no way compares to the worse weather Spain
sees. The area is affected by Atlantic lows in the winter that have
winds much higher than the approx. 40mph seen today. But they are not
of tropical nature.

So the season continues...
--howpomp

Hurricane Vince!

So continues our most interesting season. With hurricane Vince forming
between the Canary Islands and the Azores. Granted the is highly
unusual but it is fitting for a storm that has many "firsts." Here are
a couple of them:

-first "V" storm since naming began.
-one of the first systems to be named a hurricane by the second
advisory.
-the makes the 2005 season the second most active ever.

Vince will be absorbed by a cold front tomorrow starting tomorrow.
There are a couple of arear that are still being watched for formation
so do not let your guard down.

Only one more name to go before Alpha.
--howpomp

Next depression forming

Looks like the next numbered system is taking shape. This time in the
Atlantic and could be heading to Bermuda. If the trend continues, and I
think it will, we should see a new system later today. Around 0930 the
NHC sent a short notice out on this developing low.
--howpomp

Tammy comes ashore near Jacksonville

TS Tammy came ashore near Jacksonville earlier this evening. Mostly a rin maker with 50mph max winds. Now our attention will turn to our south where another area of disturbed weather is slowly approaching south Florida. This area is being watched for tropical cyclone development.

Also further out in the Atlantic another area that is well-organized is moving WNW. Conditiond are favorable for development and TS Vince could be named tomorrow.

Flood Watch continues through Friday morning for south Florida.

Tropical cyclone developing

The are of disturbed weather now has a closed ciculation. Advisories
will begin shortly.
--howpomp

Wet weather for south Florida

Tropical wave heading for south Florida. This system will probably not
become a depression until it is west of us but we will have quite a bit
of rain for the next five days.

This morning the system has slowed, so the onset of steady rain will be
delayed until tonight instead of late afternoon.

There are several possibilities after this system get to the Gulf of
Mexico that we will need to watch it closely.

I will post another update this afternoon.
--howpomp