Cone Shift

Recon found Ernesto northeast and slightly stronger than the 2PM
update. This has caused the cone to shift putting parts of Florida in
the extended cone.

As of 5PM Miami probabilities are 29/8/4 for the following winds
34/50/64 through Thursday afternoon.

I will update when the models update in a bit.

Ernesto

As expected TD5 will be upgraded to TS Ernesto. The plane out there now
has found winds of almost 45mph and a pressure of 1004mb.

TD5 or TS

First advisory will be issued at 5PM. Max winds are just below TS
strength and there is still time for an observation to be made simce the
recon plane is still flying through the storm.

Debby and TD5

After weakening slightly this afternoon Debby is getting better
organized and appears to be strengthening. Granted the drop in winds
was only from 50 to 45mph.

The more important story is what I think is already TD5 or Ernesto.
This system does not yet have a number or a name but that should change
officially tomorrow. Models are indicating this could be a hurricane
over the weekend and many models are showing a curvature towards the
US. This is a must watch.

Lastly tonight before I go to bed, data is flowing to the
wunderground.com from the home station. It went out overnight but I was
able to get it partially back to normal this afternoon. Also I would
like to thank the person who emailed me about my station reporting a
higher barometer reading than other stations. Of course this is still a
work in progress but I do apprecaite ANY feedback so please email me
anytime!

Howard

Debby

Debby was upgraded from TD4 at 11PM. Still closely watching the storm
since it is not following main model guidence. Average motion is more
to the NW over past 6 hours. I will take another look at this in the
morning after there are some visible images available.

Another wave looks to be getting its act together east of the Leeward
Islands. Conditions look good for development and we could have TD5
tomorrow.

TD4, Deerfield Weather, Data

A few things tonight...TD4 is looking better organized, still lacking
consistant convection and very large. Winds of 30mph extend out about
500 miles which is quite large. Though most storms in this area turn
towards the NW this one could go against this. Check back tomorrow for
details.

Rough weather around here tonight. Around 8PM a waterspout came ashore
Deerfield Beach which then made it a tornado. No word yet on damage but
it also brought a good down pour to areas of Deerfield and Boca. Here
at the HQ ww had only .04 inches from this activity. More rain
tomorrow.

Data is flowing now from the station. After making an adjustment things
seem stable. We will see in the morning if the numbers ar updating.

Have a good night.

TD4

Will be announced at 5PM.

Tropics Becoming More Active

Two areas of concern on opposite ends of the Atlantic are being
monitored for developement.

The first is just off the east coast of central Florida. There is a new
circulation center that formed this afternoon and conditions could
become more favorable for developement tomorrow.

Second area of concern if just off the coast of Africa. This area
looked more organized this morning but conditions look fair for further
developement.

Next update will be late tomorrow morning.

Flying on Thursday

We flew Southwest Airlines today from Ft. Lauderdale to Philadelphia.
After waking up at 6am to the news, Karen quickly repacked our liquids
and gels and went to the airport a bit earlier than we had originally
planned.

After getting dropped off we found things somewhat "normal" at FLL. The
crew at Southwest was on top of everything and a lot of credit is given
to them for being not only organized but also calm. They were just
outright nice and helpful.

We know we were lucky with our flight departing and landing on time,
pretty much. I am personally amazed how smooth things were, but again I
know we were very lucky.

Now, lets see if this trend will continue for our trip back.