TD13 Regenerates

As of 11am TD13 has regenerated in the Atlantic. Later this afternoon
it should ne upgraded to tropical storm Lee. Lee should pose no threat
to land and significant strengthening is not expected.

As far as south Florida this weekend, the GFS still shows "something"
forming in the Bahama and moving SW over south Florida. Too early to
tell what if anything it will be but plan on at least a Sunday and
Monday with some rain around.
--howpomp

Labor Day system?

Very quick post, some extended models are indicating a possible low forming around Grand Bahama Sunday then moving along a trough and into the Gulf by Monday night.

Given the current trends this possible system will/must be watched. I will post more tomorrow after reviewing more data.

Howard

Cat 5 Katrina

There is not much that I can say that is not all over the national media right now. I think this statement from the NWS in NOLA says it the best. To all of you in the area we will be thinking and praying for you.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
413 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
  MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA...
...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

Power on!

We are so lucky, our power came back on overnight. Thank you FPL,
instead of waiting FPL must have been looking for the oppurtunity to
turn our power on. There are still more than 400,000 customers who
still are without. They are saying 90% will have power by Monday.

Katrina is now a catagory 2 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. There are
a couple of other areas of disturbed weather in the Atlantic so I am
watching.

Good night.
--howpomp

A couple of more observations

I forgot to mentioned that the lowest pressure here today was 29.47
inches around 6:15pm.

Also the transformers that are blowing are incredable. The blue flashes
are frequent and in a way neat. Not that you want anyone to lose
power. FPL is now saying over a million are out of power. It may be
another 12 to 18 hours before FPL can start evaluating the damage. They
are saying there is a lot of tree damage which will take more time.

More later,
Howard
--howpomp

Katrina hits us

Here I thought I would be able to post as Katrina headed towards our
area.

After work we headed home to find no power. A squall line came through
around 4:30pm and knocked it out. We are one of about 200,000 without
power in Broward. There are about 54,000 in Palm Beach where we work.

At this moment the wind is howling outside and occasionally you can hear
something hit the shutters. Areas south of us are getting it even worse
acording to radio reports. Lines down, windows being blown out and so
far two fatalities.

Coming home there were numerous branches down along with a few trees
from Boca to Deerfield. Now, almost four hours later, it is no doubt
worse. Tomorrow will be interesting to see what really happened.

Though the eye did go to the south of our area it did go over the
National Hurricane Center.

Tomorrow after work and clean up I will post how things ended up.

Stay safe,
Howard
--howpomp

HURRICANE WARNING

We are now in a Hurricane Warning, the latest official forecast calles for us to get a catagory one hurricane late Thursday into Friday with a lot of rain.

Going to bed now to get ready for tomorrow.

Good night, be safe,

Howard

Waiting

Here we are, 10:30PM and waiting for the 11PM advisoy on Katrina. I am watching several monitors and newscasts for anything I do not catch from this chair.

While waiting for the Hurricane Warning (let's see if I can get this one right:) ) media here has flip-flopped since this morning at 5:30am when I woke up. Most mets this morning were saying watch it, do not panic, do not worry. Granted it was not a time for either but I think a more proactive statement would have been the better choice. This was pretty much across the board from the Miami stations I was watching.

Of course as the day progressed there was more and more coverage. Since the Tropical Storm Watch was upgraded to a Warning every station has shifted gears and at least 75% of their time is about Katrina.

Tropical Storm Watch for South Florida

TD12 is becoming better organized. At 11PM a Tropical Storm Watch will be issued for SE Florida, Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties.

Five to 10 inches of rain can be expected through Saturday with tropical storm force winds across the area starting later on Thursday. The exact timing will be better calculated tomorrow.

I am expecting the system to be upgraded for the 11PM advisory, it will be called Katrina. Tomorrow will no doubt be a busy day as we get a better handle on the system. I will be up early :)

Have a good night,
Howard

TD12 Forms

TD12 forms in the Bahamas. First advisory at 5pm.
--howpomp

Bahama Update

Good morning,

The system near the Bahamas looks like it may be getting more organized. Recon will investigate this afternoon if this trend continues.

As far as the future of the system, the GFDL now dissipates the system later today while the LBAR and the European model takes the system over south Florida and the BAMM models take it between the Florida Keys and Cuba.

More updates later,
Howard

TS Jose and What Will TD10 finally do?

Today the tropics went from quiet to semi-busy. TD11 formed this morning and by the time a recon jet investigated the system this afternoon it was a tropical storm, Jose was born. This will pose no threat to the US.

TD10, which could not get its act together last week may be taking on some tropical characteristics. An upper low north of the broad area is triggering thunderstorms and we could see some development in the next 24 hours according to the NHC.

The most interesting thing about this system is what the GFDL forecasted tonight. Below is the model output map from the SFWMD.

Here we see the system snaking through the Bahamas and across south Florida. According to the SHIPS intensity model in 72 hours max winds are 72mph.

We will see how the models handle the situation overnight and see if the system becomes better organized.

South Florida please stay informed.

There is also another area of disturbed weather in the far eastern Atlantic. I will keep you posted on that one as well.

Stay tuned and have a good night.

Lightning up close

I have lived in south Florida all of my life and thunderstorms are very
common. I know to use caution when I hear thunder since lightning kills
many in Florida, an average of about 50 a year.

Here I am in Pennsylvania and what an experince we had tonight. As we
were finishing up our family baby shower there were several of us on the
back patio watching the rain. All of a sudden...

BOOM^3

Lightning struck about 30 feet away, mutliple times. It was like
fireworks, colors and sound. Karen said that she saw red and blue
twisted together. Never had I been so close.

Since nobody was hurt I can say it was neat, but this area has had
numerous trees and wires down. Come morning we will take a closer look
at the tree that was hit and the other that had a large branch broken
off in the 50 plus mph wind that accompanied the thunderstorm.

As I finish this post we have another thunderstorm and a severe
thunderstorm warning just expired for this area.

Good night and be safe.
--howpomp

Hot in Philly/TD10

95F in downtown Philly today. About a degree warmer where I am right
not. Even now at 11pm it is 81 and hazy. Hard to believe it is warmer
here than in SE Florida.

TD10 formed this afternoon. Looks like there is a good chance it will
be upgraded to a tropical storm tomorrow.

Irene looks like it will stay out in the Atlantic and pose no direct
threat to the US.

Have a good night.
--howpomp

On the way to PHL

After my first time through the full security search we are waiting to
board our flight to Philly.

I have travelled many times since heightened security took to the
airports in 2001 but this was first time going under the wand and full
carry-on bag search. It is not bad except taking off my shoes, which
everyone has to do.
--howpomp

Funnel Cloud

At 7:55am August 10, 2005 I took this picture of a funnel cloud east of Boca Raton, Florida. This picture was taken from Glades Road heading east at the intersection of Airport Road.

I saw the funnel cloud forming about a minute earlier as I was exiting I-95 but I could not grab my camera until I got to the light. It was a great way to start off my day.

Below the funnel cloud picture is the Miami radar from about the same time. You can see a small cluster of showers approacing the coast in southern Palm Beach county that spawned this work of nature.

The event only lasted a few minutes but it is just amazing to watch. And as quickly as it formed it vanished.